"This idea that we are going to attack Iran is just ridiculous! Now, having said that, all options ARE on the table....."
G.W. Bush
The world is clamouring for two things:
No war
And Iran must be stopped...
I don't think these are mutually exclusive, however, no one has come up with a viable solution to stopping Iran (Economic incentives, while good on paper only work if the country is willing to abandon their nuclear ambitions) North Korea got lots of money and fuel donations but went ahead with their nuke program. South Africa abandoned theirs, as did Byelorussia, Ukraine and Libya.
In fact as I look at it, economic incentives only works if the country goes non-nuclear first and then reaps the harvest (as did Libya) otherwise, there is no reason to *not* take the money and keep building in secret (as did N Korea).
Invasion and occupation of Iran is difficult to the extreme and leaving the Mullahs in charge of Atomics is not in anyone's best interests (run the scenarios in your head... they are nasty).
These are the options:
1) Iran caves, sets up democratic elections and Iran is a free and prosperous country.
2) Iran takes the economic incentives and doesn't come clean with the nukes
3) Israel does a massive missile/bombing attack to pound Iran out of the Atomic Age.
4) Special Ops blow up stuff all around Iran.
5) Rebel insurgents (from Afghanistan) blow up stuff all around Iran.
6) The people rise up and overthrow the Mullahs
7) The Security Council gets the issue and votes on an economic embargo on Iran.
I'm already seeing the echos of 4 and 5 (train explosions, dam construction in the middle of the night ;) But I see #7 as the likely outcome of this round. And the US will continue to be the "bad cop" as Europe tries to be the "good cop", but Europe is getting frustrated with Iran (they don't want to cut a deal with the EU!) So this is going to probably go to the UN.
Steve
Posted by: Steve at February 23, 2005 10:07 AMOkay, I'm finally looking at my husband's blog...and for the record, my nerd score is 9. Maybe that's why I haven't gotten onto the blog bandwagon... Or is it just ignorance??
Posted by: Sandy at June 7, 2005 12:14 PM